We are fast approaching a conclusion to the Brexit story. While no deal Brexit chances greatly increased over the past week with a short extension of April 12th, UK Parliament is still weighing over whether or not to pass May’s deal, a rejection of which would even further heighten the chances of a no deal Brexit. If the House of Commons can pass May’s deal, then a major crisis is averted and pound sterling may trade at higher levels or may stay muted as a deal between the two is largely priced in. If however a deal cannot be concluded and pound sterling dollar is overpriced, then we can expect to see dramatic swings lower in this pair as a no deal Brexit would certainly bring chaos to the foreign exchange and equity markets.
The politics of this situation are a bit tricky. Both sides want a deal which incentivizes some amicable conclusion to this. However, such a deal is not necessarily in the offing. Shorter duration trades could be made to the upside, but the politics remain key in price action since economic indicators and technicals are being dominated by the headlines. Much more analysis on how the politics could play out here: